Changes?

If greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, global warming will become catastrophic and irreversible. The threshold of irreversibility is estimated at the temperature rise of 2 Celsius above pre-industrial levels. On current trajectories of increase, we will reach a rise of about 5 Celsius. To put that into perspective, the difference between our world and the last ice age is 5 Celsius. Changes in global temperature of around 1 or 2 Celsius have been estimated to have caused the wholesale collapse of established political order and society in a couple of points in human history. A seemingly small change like that would destabilize farming, crops would fail repeatedly, and after a couple of seasons of famines, droughts, floods (and pestilence for good measure), the established political order is found to be unsatisfying and unable to adapt society to new conditions. In a very Darwinist way, that which does not adapt, is rescinded to history, or oblivion. A new natural order arises, usually through much bloodshed, those on the fringes enter the center, proclaim a new order after all the necessary violence, and so, the ball keeps rolling, it’s not as pretty or round as it used to be, but it’ll keep rolling. If you got this far in this text, you must be asking yourself why this is important now, in this highly adaptable, technologically superior world we live in today. I mean, in the here and now, things will get sorted out, people will react to a clear and present danger such as “anthropogenic climate interference”, right? Surely, eventually… probably? See, modern day civilization is much more scientifically advanced than the civilizations of the bronze age collapse, or Rome, or whichever one you find most endearing, but, in terms of political organization, we have moved on in precious little steps since ancient Athens. Our human political organization still functions in an essentially tribal way. For example, to look at the Paris Climate summit of December 2015, is to observe the various democratically or undemocratically elected tribal leaders of nearly 200 human tribes gather around in a very pretty valley and promise to not urinate and defecate in the same river they all share for sustenance. I say promise, because, there is still no enforcement policy in place for these commitments. All that was said was that continued economic growth is prioritized over long-term climatic stability. As most have pointed out, it was definitely a large step in the right direction. The thing is though, the famines, the droughts and the floods of popular disaster movies have been happening around the world more and more frequently in recent times. And with that being said, just a step in the right direction is not what you need when you’re supposed to have started running in the right direction a couple of decades ago. But, to be honest, I don’t have a solution to this, I’m just criticizing in vain, the ball will keep rolling.

#ecology